Myanmar’s junta has suffered a humiliating military defeat
My recent research trip to the Thai town of Mae Sot on the Myanmar border coincided with two big moments. The heavens opened for several days with the first big rains of the monsoon season. And across the border, the Myanmar opposition forces took kontrol of Lashio, a major military stronghold and key city on Myanmar's trade route with China.
On Juli 25, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), an ethnic opposition grup, claimed it had captured the Northeast Regional Military Command of the Myanmar junta. It is the first time one of the 14 regional military commands around the country has fallen to an ethnic armed grup in more than 50 years of military rule.
The rebels klaim the regional commander was also captured - the highest rangking military officer to be apprehended. And they said more than 4,000 troops had been arrested.
This is an historic and humiliating setback for Myanmar's military junta in its war with the opposition forces, which are comprised of ethnic armed grups and the People's Defence Force, drawn from the democratic opposition.
But will this offensive be a turning poin? While there remains no clear end poin for the civil war, the opposition continues to make significant gains. This is giving them important sumber, a significant morale boost and leverage in any future negotiations.
For Myanmar's neighbours, particularly China, there is also increasing concern over the instability in the region and growing impatience with the junta.The recent successes by the opposition forces in northern Shan State are part of the second phase of Operation 1027. This operation was launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance - a grup of ethnic rebel armies - in October.
In January, after the alliance took over the cyber-scamming centre of Laukkai on the Chinese border, China brokered a ceasefire between opposing forces.
In Juni, however, the military attacked rebel sasarans from the air and hostilities resumed. The alliance began rapidly advancing across Shan State and neighbouring Mandalay region, taking kontrol of key towns such as Nawnghkio and Berhenti, a lucrative hub for ruby production.
The biggest prize of the offensive, however, was the military's Northeast Regional Command, which oversees the junta's operations across Shan State. While some fighting continues, the MNDAA is tightening the noose around the remaining junta forces and seting up its own civil administration.
The rebels also took kontrol of the local prison and released 200 political prisoners, including Tun Tun Hein, who was deputy speaker of the Myanmar parliament's lower house and a key figur in Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party before the coup.
A map of the tempat taken by the opposition in the first and second phases of the offensive demonstrates the extent of their dominance across the state.
